by 71ford100 Thu Nov 03, 2011 11:26 pm
I would be one pissed off person with an 85 percent germination rate. I think our certified wheat seed is 97 or better. The only real way to find out what crops typically yield in your area is either by talking to farmers or an extension agent (it is their job). For example this year our wheat yielded in the low 20's after it took some hail, the year before anywhere from 0-20, and the year before over 40 bushels per acre. Expected bushels per acre is very hard to predict accurately, one day you will have the best corn of your life the next day baseball sized hail will beat it to the ground and you can't even get silage out of it. What I personally do is I look at crop variety trials released yearly from the university of wyoming and make a guess at what the weather will do the next year and select a variety that will be condusive to higher yields. An example chart is this one:
http://www.uwyo.edu/plantsciences/UWplant/Variety%20Trials/11files/Platte_County_WY_Winter_Wheat_Nursery_2011.pdfAs far as figuring return I would set up a cash flow sheet (I'm not an accountant that is why I am dating one
) and figure out costs compared to guesstimated return. For a quick thought lets say that you want to grow 5 acres of hard red winter wheat and expect a yield of 40 bu/a. Our total expected wheat crop is going to yield approximately 200 bu/a with a 2% loss out the rear of the combine. Lets assume wheat is 5 bucks a bushels at the local elevator. This gives us a gross profit of $980. Now figure $20 bucks for each bag of certified seed wheat (can't give ya a total without a guesstimate on lbs/a planted), plus fuel, plus your time, plus equipment costs, plus repairs and maintence, plus getting it harvested and no customer cutter is going to dick around with any small plot and that is typically 30 bucks an acre nowadays. It doesn't take long to see that farming isn't very profitable on a small scale UNLESS you grow a product to supply a niche market!